Week 4 NFL Picks: Mental Models, Charlie Munger, German Mathematicians, and Inversion
After a tumultuous rollercoaster start to the NFL gambling season, we’re trying to lower our variance by identifying an NFL mental model...
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THINK SHARP
Identifying value in sports betting
Welcome to Think Sharp, where we try to get everyone's beak wet. We know you could use a little more walking around money, and we try to find opportunities for the people to get a taste.
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NCAAB 3/11/20: Finding Value When Season-Long Stats Are Misleading
North Carolina State -5 vs. Pittsburgh KenPom: NC State -7.82 Our view: NC State is a far superior team to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh beat a...
NCAAB 3/10/20: Elevator Pitches and Sports Betting
The Occam's Razor principle espouses that the simple answer is typically the right answer. Persuasive arguments are powerful and easily...
NCAAB 3/9/30: Mid-major conference motivation smash spots and must wins.
A great world of opportunity exists outside of the Power Five Conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, PAC 12, and SEC). Today we journey into...
Short memories and trusting the process: Memphis +9, Ohio State +7, Illinois -3.5, St. Mary's -7.5
Tough day today, need to reflect and learn, but can't be swayed from our process. Even if you put yourself in the position to win 53%+ of...
Clear eyes, full hearts, and (hopefully) wet beaks. Let's get that Purell and face mask money!
We like a lot of games today. Picks include Georgetown +7.5, Indiana -2, Tennessee -2, Florida -2.5, West Virginia -1, Texas Tech +3.5,...
Saunas, Late Money, Mid-Majors, and the San Diego State Aztecs -8.5 vs. Boise State
Late money is pushing the line from SDSU -9.5 to SDSU -8.5 vs. Boise State. While I don't like the steam, I don't mind a sauna. The late...
Tuesday chalk: Rutgers -1 vs (9) Maryland, Michigan St. -1.5 vs Penn State, (18) Iowa -4.5 vs Purdue
We know the post is coming late, but here is the link to the tweet with our picks that was given pregame: https://twitter.com/WeThinkShar...
Strong convictions weakly held, staying flexible, Michigan +4.5 and Stanford -1
In college basketball wagering, we have focused in on two betting strategies this season to find winners: unranked favorites or small...
Unranked Marquette -2 over (13) Seton Hall, avoiding the siren song, and other picks
As previously mentioned to #Sharpies, a basic strategy is playing the unranked team favored against the ranked team. The public hears the...
NCAAB Wagering Strategy- Worse Ranked Favorites vs Better Ranked Teams: #25 OSU -2.5 v. #7 Maryland
Similar to our unranked team wagering strategy, this strategy taps into hidden line value that is created by a seemingly easy line: a...
NCAAB Wagering Strategy - Unranked Favorites & Small Underdogs vs Ranked Teams: IU +1 vs. #9 PSU
A line too easy makes a good bettor queasy. This strategy is a derivative of that wiseguy maxim. In college basketball, whenever you see...
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