Similar to our unranked team wagering strategy, this strategy taps into hidden line value that is created by a seemingly easy line: a better ranked team getting points against a worse ranked team. To the public, a better ranked team indicates a better team, but, in reality, a better rank does not always mean the team is better than its opponent. For example, as I write this post, #25 Ohio State is playing #7 Maryland. Based on rankings, one would think Maryland should be the favorite, but the line is actually Ohio State -2.5. In this situation, we would strongly recommend looking to the worse ranked team positioned as the favorite as the possible bet-on team. As such, in the above example, we would look to bet Ohio State -2.5.
The square bettor sees that he can get the better ranked team, Maryland, AND get 2.5 points and thinks it is a steal. Like all things in life, if it looks too good to be true, it is too good to be true. In this situation, the conniving bookmaker is once again laying a trap for the public. The bookie knows that by making Maryland a small underdog, he is optically creating an inviting situation, but, as Admiral Ackbar exclaims, It's a Trap! Or, at least, it's usually a trap. The true line would likely make Ohio State or whichever team is in this situation an even bigger favorite, and therefore you are getting hidden value (i.e., free points) by taking the worse ranked favorite over the better ranked underdog.
Like with all of our strategies, we like it more when the line has not moved too much towards our preferred side, in this case the worse ranked favorite, since it opened (i.e., the worse ranked favorite opened as a 2.5 point favorite and is now a 5 point favorite). The line move indicates that some of the value hidden in the initial line has been exposed by steam (i.e., heavy betting action in one direction).
With no-to-little steam, this scenario is typically a 1-2 unit situation. With steam, this scenario is typically a 1 unit situation or can be a no play. Speaking of a no play, you should not underestimate the value of avoiding a bad bet. Sometimes nothing is the hardest thing to do, but is the optimal choice. A 100% chance of keeping 100% of a prospective bet is better than committing to a bad bet.
Keep it sharp.
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