Sharptown – Week 3 NFL Picks
Cincinnati (0-2) vs. Philadelphia (0-2) -4.5
• Motivation Edge: Self-perceived Super Bowl contenders Philadelphia need to right the ship, and the lowly Bengals. Eagles need this game.
• Cinci Overvalued: Joe Burrow hype train is fully rolling after a backdoor cover against the Cleveland Browns.
• PHI Pressure Rate: PHI has the #2 pressure rate, an advantage that will be compounded by Joe Burrow’s inexperience.
• Weak Cinci D-Line/Healthier PHI O-Line: PHI has struggled against two teams that had d-line matchup edges vs. PHI’s injured/changing O-line: WASH and LAR. No Chase Young or Aaron Donald on Cinci and for the first time this season the PHI line stays the same from week to week.
The Play: 1U on PHI -4.5.
Chicago (2-0) vs. Atlanta (0-2) -3
• ATL Motivation Edge: Must win for Atlanta at 0-2.
• CHI Overvalued: At 2-0, Chicago is a paper bear with a subpar QB, eking out victories against below average teams like Detroit (0-2) and the NY Giants (0-2) and is 1-1 ATS. Atlanta has faced a much tougher schedule with SEA and DAL, and, while losing both games, is also 1-1 ATS. Due to strength of schedule, ATL’s 1-1 ATS record is superior to CHI’s.
• CHI can’t score with ATL: Atlanta can put up points even without Julio Jones (e.g., 39 vs. Dallas), who may be out this Sunday. Mitch Trubisky (QBR 57) won’t be able to generate enough points to keep up with the Falcons.
• ATL Sharp Attention: Sharps steamed Atlanta down from +5.5 to +2.5 against the Cowboys last week, potentially signaling Atlanta a value team.
The Play: 1U on ATL -3.
Tennessee (2-0) -2.5 vs. Minnesota (0-2)
• Minnesota Stinks: Minny had a lot of turnover on defense in the offseason and All-Pro Anthony Barr is now out. #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs is now on the Bills. This is a bad Minnesota team.
• Tennessee Underrated: 3 missed field goals against Denver during Tenn’s Week 1 matchup against Denver made that game seem closer than it was, and the Jaguars actually look frisky, so that win means something.
• Cousins Can’t Capitalize: Captain Kirk currently rocks a 25 QBR through two games and lacks the weapons to punish an injured Tennessee secondary (top 2 CBs out).
The Play: 1U on Tenn -2.5
LA Rams (2-0) +3 vs. Buffalo
• Buffalo Overrated: Everyone is circling the wagons around a Bills team that has beaten the dumpster fire Jets and scraped by against the Miami Dolphins. Yawn.
• Rams are Road Warriors: Since 2017, the Rams are 5-0 in 1pm ET east coast games, scoring at least 30 points in each one. The Rams have outscored their opponents 185-89 in these contests, with only one being within 10 points.
• Rams are Contenders when Healthy: The Rams are thin if an injury/pandemic bug hits, but the top of the depth chart is full of blue chippers. People forget this team is a Super Bowl contender at full strength.
The Play: 1U on LAR +3
San Francisco (1-1) vs. NY Giants (0-2) +4
• Home Field Advantage: The 49ers are on the record complaining about the turf at Metlife. This is a very unique complaint and the team is telling you they don’t like playing there, so it’s a factor.
• Free Roll on 49ers injuries: Bosa and Solomon Thomas are out. Dee Ford could be out. There goes the pressure on Danny Dimes. 49ers rely on a robust front to compensate for a weak secondary. Jimmy G’s status is unknown still for Sunday. In total, 9 starters for SF could be out on Sunday (https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/140268-49ers-injury-list-lengthy-team-could-starters-giants/), so you’re getting a free roll, should some of those players’ statuses become confirmed out
• Saquon Loss Manageable: While Saquon is a generational talent, RB have become the most replaceable position. Moreover, the team will actually force him the ball sometimes to increase his touches. NYG will have a freer flowing game plan.
The Play: 1U on NYG +4
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