North Carolina State -5 vs. Pittsburgh
KenPom: NC State -7.82
Our view: NC State is a far superior team to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh beat a weak, inconsistent Wake Forest team, which is not a quality win. Pittsburgh hasn't had a quality in over a month, and is bad. On the other hand, NC state is a better team statistically and has many more quality wins over the season and recently (Duke). This line is short in our view and KenPom's view, and we don't see a reason for it.
The Bet: NC State -5 for 1U
Minnesota -8 vs. Northwestern
KenPom: 14.19
Our view: Minnesota is a top 30 team per KenPom, although Minnesota is 14-16 overall. A sub .500 team is a top 30 team! This is a great spot because Minnesota is clearly better than its record suggests, so we're going to get value. Minnesota already beat Northwestern twice, recently smashing them by 17. We think close losses against quality teams (5 point loss to Indiana, 2 point loss to Wisconsin, 1 point loss to Maryland) are obscuring Minnesota's talent. Minnesota will shine against a lowly team like Northwestern, especially its star and future lottery pick Oturu.
The Bet: Minnesota -8 for 1U
UNC -3 vs. Syracuse
KenPom: Syracuse -1.56
Our view: Whoa, what a difference between the KenPom and market lines! We agree, throw out the season-long stats because this is a different UNC team with Anthony, Brooks, and Robinson healthy. We think UNC is still undervalued based on its season long stats and has a good chance to make noise in the ACC tournament. Moreover, UNC recently solidly beat Syracuse in Syracuse 92-79, with Brooks, Robinson, and Anthony all healthy. There will be a lot of North Carolina blue in Greensboro. We like UNC.
The Bet: UNC -3 for 2U
Note: These picks were announced earlier on our Twitter account @WeThinkSharp. https://twitter.com/WeThinkSharp/status/1237805718151090181?s=20
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