After a tumultuous rollercoaster start to the NFL gambling season, we’re trying to lower our variance by identifying an NFL mental model that focuses on key factors to create a coherent betting narrative and avoid noise and bias. Renowned investor Charlie Munger explains his rules for investing the role of mental models:
“Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form. You’ve got to have models in your head.”
Too often we are finding ourselves cobbling together isolated factors about each game, rather than developing a model to filter every game and identify winning probabilities. We are going to examine all of our picks through the prism of the following lenses: Inversion, Spot, Matchup, and Motivation. Throughout the season, we expect to refine our NFL wagering but mental model, but are hoping to keep it simple, since we agree with Occam’s Razor in that simpler explanations are more likely to be true than complicated ones.
Mental Model Lenses
Inversion: The German mathematician Carl Jacobi was known for his ability to solve difficult problems by following a method of man muss immer umkehren or, loosely translated, “invert, always invert.” To invert means to turn upside down or in the opposite position, order, or arrangement. As a thinking tool it means approaching a wagering situation from the opposite end of the stated starting point, which is the current home/away implication of the spread. Most of us tend to only think about a problem with the outlined process or framework. Inversion allows us to flip the outlined process and assess if it still holds true. We are going to pressure test each spread by seeing if it makes sense if the home team were away and visa versa. Does the adjusted number make sense (Note: we are using 1.5 for home field advantage this year instead of 3 due to the absence of fans).
Spot: It is important to know the context for every game. Is a team inflated coming off a big primetime victory? Is the team looking ahead to a key Thursday Night Football matchup? A team’s spot often relates to the game situation in the context of the season schedule and can artificially inflate or deflate spreads, inaccurately influence public perception, and sway motivation.
Matchup: This is the hardest lens to effectively use because it comes down to scouting which professional scouts even struggle with. For example, if a favorite’s weakness is the offensive line and an underdog’s strength is the defensive line, then there can be a matchup edge that is undercounted in the spread. It could be a style of play contrast
Motivation: A team’s motivation can be a function of the spot (e.g., bounce back game, smash spot, dream crusher, etc.) or the matchup (e.g., rivalry), but it can also be influenced by other things such as the relationship with the coach, season outlook, etc. You never want to be a on a demotivated team and always want a motivated squad.
Colts (2-1) @ Bears (3-0) +2.5
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Indy (i.e., Colts -5.5)? We think that number seems high in Indy and Bears are getting no respect at 3-0 with an upgrade at QB with Foles taking over for Trubisky. Per ESPN Chalk, “Home underdogs that entered a game 3-0 or better straight up on the season are 17-5 ATS in the Super Bowl era (covered in past six such games).”
· Spot: Bears coming off a come from behind win in Atlanta led by Nick Foles who came into the game for Trubisky should lead to extra motivation (“We believe” factor). The Bears do have a short turnaround for Thursday Night Football against the Bucs, but that doesn’t seem like a distraction. Similarly, we don’t see an issue with the Colts looking ahead to next week’s Browns game. Indy is coming off a Week 3 smashing of the lowly Jets which tells you nothing. Indy has faced the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets who are all weak. While Indy’s stats are strong, they are somewhat empty based on strength of schedule.
· Matchup: Indy doesn’t trust Rivers to throw and is playing a very deliberate and slow pace by running the ball a ton and throwing for short passes. Don’t see the Colts running away with it.
· Motivation: Both teams should be motivated, but we give the Bears a slight edge with Foles in at QB after the come from behind win against the Falcons. There were always questions around Mitch, and now the team can rally around Nick Foles – a QB to believe in.
The Play: 2U on the Bears
Cardinals (2-1) -3 @ Panthers (1-2)
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Arizona (i.e., Cardinals -6)? We think that number seems about right giving Arizona’s ability to score.
· Spot: Panthers are coming off a win against the Chargers, but Panthers were outgained 436 to 302. Panthers were buoyed by 3 lost fumbles and 1 interception from the Chargers, which is extremely unusual. As such, we think while win inflated perception of Panthers, it was not a skilled win, but a somewhat lucky win with turnovers. Similarly, the Cardinals outgained the Lions but lost the turnover battle 3-0. We like the Cardinals coming off a loss, which deflates perception, to bounce back.
· Matchup: We’re not scared of anyone on the Panthers. Bridgewater struggles in the red zone while Kyler crushes.
· Motivation: Both teams should be motivated, but Cards should have a slight edge with something to prove after a loss. Cardinals have playoff aspirations in a tough division, which elevates this potential trap game out of the floorboards and into plain sight. Perhaps a let down for the Panthers after pulling off an upset road win in LA.
The Play: 1U on the Cardinals
Jaguars (1-2) +3 @ Bengals (0-2-1)
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Jacksonville (i.e., Bengals/Jaguars pk)? We think the Jags should be a small favorite at home over the winless, albeit feisty, Bengals. As such, line value seems to be on the Jags with this Bengals line inflation.
· Spot: The people love Joe Burrow and the fandom is now at peak levels after tying the Eagles. Still no wins to speak of. Plus, he got physically destroyed (8 sacks) by that strong Eagles defensive line. In our view, that tie was more of a result of the Eagles inept offense than the Bengals doing anything special. Conversely, we are buying low on the Jaguars after a primetime smackdown against the Dolphins.
· Matchup: The Jaguars have a sneaky good rush defense which should bottle up Mixon and force Burrow to beat them. Chark, the Jags #1 WR who missed the game against the Dolphins, is expected to play which should support more points.
· Motivation: We see motivation as even. Bengals team believe in Burrow and want to get the elusive first win, while the Jags are in the bounce back spot after getting blown out on primetime.
The Play: 1U on the Jaguars
Vikings (0-3) @ Texans (0-3) -3.5
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Minnesota (i.e., Texans -0.5)? We would take the Texans up to -2 at Minnesota, so we like this line value.
· Spot: Even at 0-3, the Texans have playoff aspirations, even if they may be delusional. With stars such as Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, they are desperate for a win to turnaround the season. Vikings just had a deflating home loss against the Titans after getting smashed by the Colts the week before. Moreover, the Vikings had a Covid scare this week and Kirk Cousins stinks when he doesn’t have a standard 1pm kickoff because his routine is very important. Covid shutting down the practice facility during the week is anything but routine!
· Matchup: Both the Texans and Vikings have bad secondaries, but I trust Watson to capitalize more than Cousins coming off a Covid scare. This ain’t your usual Vikings defense which has given up 43, 28, and 31 points during Week 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
· Motivation: Vikings coming off a deflating loss and a Covid scare, while the Texans still believe they can turn their season around, which must start with this game.
The Play: 1U on the Texans
Seahawks (3-0) @ Dolphins (1-2) +6.5
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Seattle (i.e., Seahawks -9.5)? 9.5 seems like a lot of points to give to a competitive Dolphins team that can score.
· Spot: Seahawks are coming back to back barnburning home wins against the Patriots and Dolphins. Traveling cross-country this week to the heat and humidity in Miami smells like trap. Dolphins have 10 days of rest after playing Thursday night.
· Matchup: Even though the Seahawks are 3-0, they have no pass rush, secondary, and now Chris Carson and maybe even Jamal Adams are out. While it’s scary to bet against Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are looking patchy right now. Dolphins offense is hot and should be able to put up points. Could be a back-door cover. High of 87 degrees in Miami could slow down Seattle.
· Motivation: Let down spot for Seattle after beating Patriots and Cowboys.
The Play: 1U on the Dolphins
Eagles (0-2-1) +7@ 49ers (2-1)
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Philadelphia (i.e., Eagles +4)? It seems absolutely nuts that the Eagles would be 4 point dogs at home to this injured 49ers team that only has wins against the god awful Giants and Jets.
· Spot: Must win for Eagles after deflating Bengals tie. We are buying the Eagles very low. 49ers could fall flat after beating both (terrible) New York teams despite terrible injuries. The 49ers haven’t won against a good team yet.
· Matchup: Eagles defensive line has been strong and should harass Mullens or Jimmy G or whoever is back there. Eagles D should be able to mitigate SF run game. Also, remember, after starting 0-3 ATS last year, the Eagles beat the Packers straight up in Lambeau.
· Motivation: Let down spot for the 49ers after back to back road games in New York. Must win game for the Eagles to turn their season around. "Show me" game for former MVP candidate Carson Wentz.
The Play: 2U on the Eagles
Giants (0-3) @ Rams (2-1) -12.5
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in New York (i.e., Rams -9.5)? This is high, but there are question marks about the Giants effort level, motivation, and ability which account for the number. Rams seem like Super Bowl contenders while the Giants may be headed toward a downward spiral.
· Spot: Rams coming off a tough loss in Buffalo after they tried to circle the wagons after going down big and almost coming back. Coming off a loss, the Rams will not overlook the Giants. After a tough loss last week, this is a smash spot for the Rams. Giants could potentially look ahead to Cowboys next week, but unlikely.
· Matchup: Rams are better at every position and McVay likes running up the score. Giants won’t be able to run the ball effectively and Daniel Jones will be forced to throw a ton, which will result in 1-2 turnovers, which will increase the margin of victor for the Rams.
· Motivation: After getting crushed by an undermanned 49ers team last week and losing Saquon the week before, the Giants may be deflated. Conversely, the Rams will be highly motivated to bounce back after a loss to the Bills.
The Play: 1U on the Rams.
Ravens (2-1) -13 @ Washington (1-2)
· Inversion: Does this line make sense if the game were played in Baltimore (i.e., Ravens -16)? This is high, but, like the Giants, there are question marks about Washington’s effort level, motivation, and ability which account for the number. Similarly, the Ravens seem like Super Bowl contenders while Washington may be headed toward a downward spiral, and a replacement at QB. Moreover, Baltimore smashes bad teams as indicated by the Ravens’ +15.5 ppg (11-1 ATS, 12-0 SU) ATS margin which is triple the next best, KC (H/T to @RJinVegas).
· Spot: Ravens coming off a loss to the Chiefs with people speculating about “Limited Lamar”. Ravens will want to make a statement win.
· Matchup: Ravens are better at every position group except D-line, but Chase Young is out for Washington. Harbaugh likes running up the score.
· Motivation: Ravens will be looking for a statement, blowout win after losing to the Chiefs last week. Washington seems to be on the verge of replacing Haskins with Rivera saying there is a “cutoff point” with Haskins and Washington “deserves better”. We suspect these comments might compel Haskins to do too much and commit turnovers.
The Play: 1U on the Ravens.
TEASER BONUS
Rams -6.5 and Baltimore -7 vs. Giants/Washington
· Inversion: N/A due to tease.
· Spot: This is a smash spot for both the Rams and Ravens after tough losses to the Bills and Chiefs, respectively, the previous week. The Ravens steamroll bad teams and the Giants are a train wreck.
· Matchup: We like the spot for both favorites, and double digits have been covering more as points have increased. Since 2012, double digit favorites have a ~57.5% win rate if you blindly bet them and there are more points being scored this year than ever before.
· Motivation: High for both Ravens and Rams after coming off losses, with Super Bowl aspirations. Contenders blowout bad teams.
The Play: 1U Rams/Baltimore 6pt Tease
Comments