We like a lot of games today. Picks include Georgetown +7.5, Indiana -2, Tennessee -2, Florida -2.5, West Virginia -1, Texas Tech +3.5, Penn State -7, UVA -1, UNC +11, and Stanford +7.5, Colorado -3 (+105), SDSU -4.5. All 1U.
Buying low on Georgetown and Colorado:
Georgetown has lost 5 in a row, but is a talented team. With this line (+7.5) we are getting free rolls on if Yurtseven or McClung play today. Gtown is 10-7 at home and will fight hard, and hopefully catch Nova in a let down spot after they beat Seton Hall.
Colorado has lost three in a row and four out of six to fall out of the AP poll. Losses against UCLA and Stanford are nothing to sneeze at. They're still dancing as of now, but they need to right the ship and not take a bad loss Utah, who Colorado previously beat 91-52.
Unranked favorites or small underdogs vs. ranked teams:
We love these suspicious lines. All high motivation home spots for talent although unranked teams. These include Indiana -2, Tennessee -2.5, Florida -2.5, West Virginia -1, and Texas Tech +3.5.
Worse ranked favorites vs. better ranked teams:
We also love these spots and are riding with the Cavaliers of Virginia -1 against Louisville.
Road underdogs getting too many points:
UNC already played Duke tough and we believe they will play them tough again. We like UNC +11. It's too many points, particularly in a high motivation spot, and something has been rotten in Durham lately.
Stanford is the best team no one is paying attention too. They have a top 6 defense per KenPom and had won 4 in a row before a tough loss to Oregon St. in Corvallis who is much better at home. We like the trees +7.5 out west.
Smash spot:
Penn State is a talented team has lost so many close games lately, and probably should've beaten Michigan State with their big lead. Penn State is undervalued due to recent close losses and will want to smash Northwestern after many frustrating losses.
Sauna play:
We're going back Tenochtitlan. Late steam has moved the SDSU line from -5.5 to -4.5. Utah St. seems hot, but they only have one quality win (UNLV), and, at 30-1, SDSU is hotter. While SDSU has started slow, they've closed out the past two games 100-50 (vs. Air Force and Boise State; h/t to @daviddaman2 on Twitter). Moreover, while people say it's hard to beat a team 3 times, since 2010, teams that have already beaten a team twice have a 72% chance to win the third game. Additionally, SDSU is top 10 in adjusted offense and defense, per KenPom, so they are getting very little respect at -4.5. While folks are clamoring about how this game is a must win for Utah St. to get into the tourney, I think SDSU views it as a must win as well to get a #1 seed, so the motivation is high on both sides. I am worried about Neemias Queta inside for Utah St., and SDSU getting rebounds to close out defensive series, but it's now the worse thing if Utah St. runs a bunch of inefficient isolation post-ups. The disrespected Aztecs will get enough team defense and rebounding to win by at least 5. Additionally, with 4/5 starters over 80% from the line, I like the Aztecs to build on their lead late.
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