The Occam's Razor principle espouses that the simple answer is typically the right answer. Persuasive arguments are powerful and easily digestable, like an elevator pitch. If you have a strong argument, such as a view on a sports event, you should be able to communicate your edge(s) clearly. I'm finding myself looking for too many factors, rather than clear large factors.If you cannot succinctly explain the top 3 factors driving your point of view, you probably shouldn't make the bet. If you're hemming and hawing and looking for many small angles, you likely shouldn't make the bet. Going forward, I'm going to try and make my handicaps more simple, avoid Rube Goldberg handicaps by eschewing the clutter and confusion of over-analysis. If the edge isn't clear and obvious, it's a no bet.
Note: This article is written after the Wake Forest and UNC games have concluded. However, our picks were announced via tweet earlier today. https://twitter.com/WeThinkSharp/status/1237428696904093701?s=20
The Picks:
Wake Forest +1.5 vs. Pittsburgh:
KenPom line: Wake Forest -1 vs. Pittsburgh
Overall: We think this game should be pk and are getting 1.5 points of value on Wake. Both teams are weak, but Wake has better quality wins in recent past (Duke and Notre Dame) while Pittsburgh has lost 7 in a row. While season long stats make these teams similar, Wake's recent performance is much better.
1) Wake has better wins than Pitt (e.g., Duke, Notre Dame, Clemson, UNC, Xavier, and Davidson) and beat Pitt in Pittsburgh (69-64). Pitt's quality wins include Florida State (back in November), Rutgers, UNC (twice), and Miami.
2) Pitt is trending in the wrong direction. Pitt has lost its last 7 game, which is clearly a bad sign. However the opponent level was relatively strong (Clemson, Va Tech, FSU, UVA, Cuse, NC State, Ga Tech). However, to a certain extent, losing 7 in a row is losing 7 in a row.
3) Wake is close to home. This game will be played in Greensboro, a short 30min drive from the Demon Deacon's Winston-Salem home.
Counterpoint: Steam has pushed this line to Pitt -1.5 (late money perceived to be smart money). Pitt hasn't beaten anyone recently and should not be a favorite against any ACC team on neutral court.
The Play: 1U on Wake Forest +1.5
North Carolina -3.5 vs. Virginia Tech
KenPom line: North Carolina -4.13
Overall: We love this bet because the handicap is simple. While this isn't a dominant UNC team, they have been marred by injuries. This is a different, much better team when Cole Anthony, Garrison Brooks, and Brandon Robinson are all on the court, which has been rare this year. However, now they are all healthy. With these three on the court, UNC is much better than the season-long stats suggest. We will be betting them throughout the NCAA tournament.
The Play: 2U on North Carolina -3.5
Saint Mary's +9 vs. (2) Gonzaga
KenPom: 10.68
Overall: We love this bet as well, again because the handicap is simple. Saint Mary's is playing inspired basketball and NEEDS this game to get in the tournament, while Gonzaga is not playing with the same sense of urgency. Gonzaga will not be able to slow down Jordan Ford. If Gonzaga can't stop SF's Mineland, they won't stop Ford. Moreover, 9 points is so many when Gonzaga struggles from the free throw line (<70% as a team). So, if Saint Mary's is down late and employs a fouling strategy, Gonzaga is less likely to materially extend the lead. Saint Mary's might struggle with Gonzaga's size, so they might lose in a slog, but not a blowout. We think Saint Mary's a live dog with a motivational edge and the best player on the court.
The Play: 1U on Saint Mary's +9
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