As previously mentioned to #Sharpies, a basic strategy is playing the unranked team favored against the ranked team. The public hears the seductive siren song of a ranked team getting points against an unranked team and moves toward the alluring music, but the sharps already know about the sirens and our ears are plugged, our rules are set, and we will not beg to be unbound from our strategic fetters. We listen to Circe's counsel and fade the ranked underdog, even as the mighty Odysseus may rush towards Myles Powell and the Knights of Seton Hall.
Leaving Homer's tales behind, let's explore beyond the Aegean Sea and why we like Marquette -2 to win and cover against an ostensibly superior Seton Hall team.
1) The Situation - Unranked favorite against a ranked team: This line stinks and is a public trap. While we may not always play the unranked favorite, we basically never want to play the ranked favorite. Seton Hall's rank makes them seem like the superior team, but Marquette is the favorite so they are the better team today given all available information. The bookie only has to show a little leg aka making the Hall a small dog, to get all the action he wants. Therefore, there is more likely to be hidden line value on Marquette.
Counterpoint: Seton Hall already beat Marquette, and they won by 14! This game was not only a life time ago (January 11th), but was at Seton Hall. As such, it was Markus Howard vs. the world. No other Golden Eagle, save for Howard, scored double digits. We expect the Marquette role players to step up at home.
2) Marquette at home - Enhance's role players' production: On the road, Marquette is the Markus Howard show, which has resulted in a losing road record (5-7), but at home Marquette is different team (13-2), not only because of a raucous home crowd, but because its secondary players like Sacar Anim and Koby McEwen step up and support Howard's prolific output. At home, Marquette has quality wins against Purdue, Davidson, USC, Villanova, Xavier, Butler, and Georgetown.
3) The best player is on Marquette - Markus Howard: We like being on the side of the team with best player in a short line situation. Howard averages 27 pts/game on 41.5 FG% and 39.6 3P% and 84.5 FT%. Myles Powell, Seton Hall's preeminent talent, averages fewer points (21) with worse efficiency (40% FG, 30% 3P%, 80% FT%).
Counterpoint: Seton Hall has a better supporting cast with McKnight and Mamukelashvili. We like Amin, McEwen, and Bailey to step up at home and even Howard to overperform.
4) Buying low - Marquette has lost 3/4 to quality teams: While Marquette has been knocked out of the top 25 due to a recent skid, they have been against quality opponents (Villanova, Creighton, Providence), with 2/3 on the road (Villanova and Providence). These are not bad losses and do not indicate Marquette is a bad team. For example, Marquette only lost to Nova by 1 at Nova. Moreover, Seton Hall has also lost to Creighton and Providence.
5) Motivation - Marquette needs to win to dance: March Madness starts to today for the Golden Eagles while this game is less important to fat and happy Knights.
6) Coaching edge - the other Woj: we like Wojciechowski to put his team in position to succeed in a must win game at home.
The bet - 2U: We like Marquette -2 for 1U and Marquette ML for 1U.
Other picks (all 1U):
Iowa (18) -4 over (16) Penn State - We like another basic strategy here, the worse seed favorite over the better ranked seed. Iowa is a much better team at home (13-1) and Penn State is a much worse team on the road (5-4).
Clemson +3.5 over (6) Florida State - We like the unranked small underdog against perceived highly touted number 6 ranked Seminoles. Not only is line suspicious, but Clemson plays differently against top tier teams at home (10-5) and always steps up, while FSU finds itself barely above .500 on the road (6-4)
Maryland (2) -2.5 over Michigan State - Maryland is undefeated at home (15-0) while Michigan State is mediocre on the road (5-4). Something is rotten in East Lansing and this team is overrated due to last year's NCAA's performance, brand, and Izzo. Maryland is a talent team that will never give up, as evidenced by the Terps' miracle comeback win against Minnesota.
(15) Auburn +7 over (8) Kentucky - Auburn is a bad matchup for Kentucky and already beat the Cats by double digits. Now, Auburn is sizeable dog to a Kentucky team that is streaking, but it's last 4 wins have not been convincing. We think the books have over-adjusted and Kentucky's win streak is not as impressive as it may seem give the tossup nature of the games.
Stay Away:
Uva +3.5 against Duke - While we typically like the unranked small home underdog vs. the ranked road team, Duke is coming off losing 2/3, including a brutal 2OT loss to Wake Forest and a blowout loss to NC. While something might be rotten in Durham, we don't have a feel if this is a pattern or a rebound spot for the Blue Devils. With 9 of the Cavaliers' victories coming by 6 points or fewer, there isn't much room for error. No reason to walk a tightrope if you're not a Wallenda.
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