A great world of opportunity exists outside of the Power Five Conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, PAC 12, and SEC). Today we journey into the WCC and MAC to find value. We like two kinds of teams in mid-major conference tournaments: dominant regular season teams in pursuit of a top March Madness seed and talented bubble teams that know they won't make it if they don't at least make the conference final, if not win the entire conference tournament. Why do we like this situation? Motivation. These teams want to win at all costs and by as large a margin as possible to boost their Big Dance resumes. While statistics can typically be factored into a line, it is harder for bookmakers to assess motivation in a uniform mathematical way, so it can be unaccounted for. We also like clear favorites in these conference games because the trailing team is less likely to give up in a conference tournament vs. a regular season game and will continue to foul, likely extending the lead.
Saint Mary's +4.5 vs. (14) BYU: KenPom, which we will use for the market, makes this line about BYU -5.5 with BYU at 21 adjusted AdjEM and Saint Mary's at 15.42 AdjEM. So why do we like this line a point lower? We love the motivational spot for a talent Saint Mary's team who absolutely needs this game to have any chance of getting into the tournament. SMC is in full Cinderella mode after a double OT win over Pepperdine and Jordan Ford will be the best player on the court tonight. SMC also matches up well with BYU, as evidenced by beating BYU 3 at home and losing by 2 away. We also like this situation generally - a small underdog vs. a ranked team. We think SMC has a good chance to win straight up, but like it with the 4.5. Gael-force winds are about to hit Las Vegas.
(2) Gonzaga -12.5 vs. San Francisco: KenPom makes this game SF +17 vs. Gonzaga, so the bookies like SF's late season surge and/or don't love this Gonzaga team. Perhaps KenPom is off, or maybe we're getting free points (highly unlikely!). Either way, we like this spot for Gonzaga as they are looking to dominate the WCC tournament in pursuit of an overall #1 seed. While SF obviously needs this game to continue their season, they don't have the horses to keep up with a fully motivated Gonzaga squad. This is a high motivation spot for Zags who will look to blow out the San Francisco Dons (what a mascot!). Gonzaga needs to crush teams like the Dons to build a #1 seed resume.
Buffalo -9 vs. Miami Ohio: KenPom makes this line Buffalo -8.26, so we're paying very little for Buffalo's motivational edge. Buffalo has recently established itself has a regular March Madness participant and has its eyes on MAC prize again this year, despite a more up and down year. Buffalo has already beaten Miami Ohio twice, and we like this situation as well, since teams have a 72% win percentage against teams they've already beaten twice. In their previous matchups, Buffalo won by 5 points and 6 points, margins slimmer than the 9 point line. However, we think Buffalo is more motivated for the conference tournament than a 12-19 Miami Ohio team with no real hopes of dancing. We like the Bulls to blowout the Redhawks.
Ohio -5 vs. Central Michigan: KenPom makes this line Ohio -3.49, so we're paying up for Ohio. These two teams are going in different directions, with CMU limping into MAC tournament, going on a 9-game losing streak before most recently topping Western Michigan. Ohio started 2-7 in the MAC but has won 6 of its last 9, including sound victories over Buffalo and Kent State. These Bobcats are frisky.
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