Saunas, Late Money, Mid-Majors, and the San Diego State Aztecs -8.5 vs. Boise State

Late money is pushing the line from SDSU -9.5 to SDSU -8.5 vs. Boise State. While I don't like the steam, I don't mind a sauna. The late money is typically perceived as the smart money, so a rule of thumb is you supposedly want to be on that side because they know something, and they like Boise State. But we like San Diego State.

So, what does the late money see? They might see that Boise State just beat a UNLV team yesterday that beat SDSU two weeks ago. And they see Boise State catching a big number in a must win game, so bada bing bada boom. However, the UNLV team that lost to Boise State was missing it's best player Naz Mitrou-Long, so the quality of the win is misleading, while SDSU lost to a UNLV with Mitrou-Long. Apples and oranges as they say. Additionally, while some may view 8.5 points as a lot for a conference tourney game, we view San Diego State as more motivated than usual to win, plus SDSU has already smoked Boise State twice.

As a mid-major school, San Diego State does not want to be at the mercy of an at-large bid and is highly motivated to win the Mountain West conference tournament, even as a high profile mid-major team. These prominent mid-major teams have a chip on their shoulder and want to dominate their conference to show they are as good as any power conference school. Moreover, SDSU needs to win its conference tourney to have a shot at a #1 seed in the big dance, something that's realistically attainable and highly motivating. As such, we believe SDSU wants to crush Boise State, something they've already done twice (83-65 on 1/11/20 and 72-55 on 2/16/10). The Aztecs are going to rip their hearts out.

The Bet: San Diego State -8.5 for 2U

Keep it sharp.