A line too easy makes a good bettor queasy. This strategy is a derivative of that wiseguy maxim. In college basketball, whenever you see an unranked team favored or a small underdog (3 points or less) against a ranked team, you should strongly consider betting on the unranked team.
The first level thinker, aka the Public, sees a ranked team only laying a few points or even getting points against an unranked team and thinks it's an easy win and jumps in. This is the dastardly bookie laying a trap, and you want to be on the side laying the trap, not getting trapped.
The second level thinker thinks sharp and wonders, "Why is the unranked team considered to be almost as good or superior to the ranked team?" The unranked team is favored or a small underdog because it has a legitimate possibility of being the better team that day based on all available information: it could be a matchup issue, an injury, a motivational factor. The unranked team could simply be underrated and/or the ranked team could be overrated. It doesn't matter what it is, but you know it's true because the line says it's true. Often times, thinking sharp aligns with fading the public.
Why do sharps like this situation? There is typically hidden value on the unranked team because the bookie only needs to make the ranked team a small favorite or underdog to attract bets and create a book where the bookie is on the right side of the action (i.e., the unranked favorite or small underdog). Since the ranked team is laying what seems like an inconsequential amount of points or is even getting points against an unranked team, you can guarantee the public will be all over the ranked team, thereby creating a line that has hidden value on the unranked favorite or small underdog side of the line because the bookie does not have to offer a true line to attract sufficient action from bettors. In other words, in this situation, you're getting free points with the unranked team.
For example, unranked Indiana was a 1 point underdog against #9 Penn State today. One would think #9 Penn state (a supposed top 10 team!) should be favored by more than 1 point against an unranked Indiana team. We would bet Indiana in this situation, per the rule. Indiana beat #9 Penn State by 8, so Indiana won and covered. This strategy will not win every time, but we only need it to win at least 53% of the time assuming we're laying -110. In a later post, we will explain why 53% is the benchmark of profitability.
We especially like this situation when the line has not moved too much towards the unranked team since it opened (i.e., the unranked opened as a 1 point favorite and is now a 4 point favorite). The line move indicates that some of the value hidden in the initial line has been exposed by steam (i.e., heavy betting action in one direction).
With no-to-little steam, this scenario is typically a 2-3 unit situation. With steam, this scenario is typically a 1 unit situation. When the unranked team is an underdog, we like to bet half on the moneyline and half on the spread.
Stay Sharp.
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