This line is Keyser Soze level suspicious. We're feeling Minnesota and grabbing Willy Wonka's Golden Gopher ticket over the overrated Maryland Terrapins, who struggle on the road. At first glance, how is the best team in the Big 10, Maryland, ranked 9th in the country, only a 1 point favorite against a .500 unranked Minnesota team. It's is a classic situation in which the ranked team seems like the superior play, but the value is on the small underdog unranked team, Minnesota. We see a several factors at play:
1) Minnesota is a different, superior team at home - Minnesota is 10-4 at home, which belies the team's overall 13-13 record. Minnesota has many quality home wins, including Clemson, Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. This dog is alive.
2) Maryland is a different, worse team on the road - Maryland (22-5 overall) struggles on the road (4-5). All of Maryland's losses have come away from College Park.
Counterpoint: Maryland's road losses have all come against quality teams such as Penn State, Seton Hall, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. Is Minnesota on the same level as these teams?
3) Trap game for Maryland - This is a look ahead spot for Maryland, who faces Michigan State in 3 days, in a premier Saturday national Big 10 battle.
Counterpoint: Maryland just lost to Ohio State and is therefore more likely to be more motivated to avoid back to back losses, thusly diminishing trap game potential.
4) Must win for Minnesota (i.e., motivation) - Minnesota needs this game more, while Maryland is still feeling comfortable about Selection Sunday. March Madness starts tonight for the Golden Gophers, while Maryland is likely looking ahead to Sparty on Saturday.
5) Buying low on Minnesota - Minnesota is not as bad as the team's record suggests. Minnesota not only shares common losses with Maryland (e.g., Iowa, Penn State), but also has beaten teams that have beaten Maryland (e.g., Penn Sate and Ohio State). Minnesota's record was recently pulled down by losses to Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana - all teams that gave Maryland trouble as well.
6) Coaching advantage - We like Richard Pitino more than Mark Turgeon, who we see as an unsophisticated coach.
7) Finding Nemo - This line is fishy. It reeks. It's begging you to take (9) Maryland basically just to beat unranked Minnesota at a 1 point line. We want to be on the other side of the obvious public choice.
The Bet: A 2 unit play on Minnesota, with 1 unit on +1 (-110) and 1 unit on the Moneyline (-105).
Keep it sharp.
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